We stand with Ukraine

The Impact of the Highly Improbable: What a Trump Presidency Means for Financial Markets

10 November 2016

Kaufmann & Partners used their proprietary AI technology and analytical tools powered by Cogito, Expert System’s cognitive technology, to predict that Donald Trump would win the 2016 U.S. presidential election

Kaufmann & Partners, an investment advisory focused on leveraging AI to analyze the dynamics of financial markets, published the study “The Impact of the Highly Improbable: what a Trump presidency means for financial markets” on November 8th. While investors across the world were regarding a Donald Trump presidency as a low probability event, Kaufmann & Partners correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 United States Presidential Elections.

Part of Kaufmann & Partners’ methodology is to monitor not only polls of polls–as all of the major news outlets have done–but to cross-reference them with social media leveraging the power of big data analytics. In practice, this involves building a collection of polls of polls driven by the major media, polling agencies, specialized investigators and a collection of results driven by social analytics companies, including AI-powered technologies such as Expert System’s Cogito cognitive technology.

“Once again, the intelligent analysis of information is able to surprise us,” said Stefano Spaggiari, CEO, Expert System. “There is an invaluable wealth of information available to us and now more than ever, the competitiveness of any organization rests on its ability to govern and exploit this enormous amount of knowledge in the most intelligent way possible.”

Artificial intelligence algorithms for big data text analytics, such as those developed by Expert System, are fundamental because they simulate and apply the process of learning from, reading and understanding information on a large scale.

Following the election of Donald Trump as the new president of the United States, for Kaufmann & Partners the next big questions are: What is the impact on financial markets? What are the most likely scenarios?

As a result of the election, financial markets will have to adjust to a “new normal” marked by higher volatility and a fragile debt market. There is also a significant chance of a banking crisis across the increasingly vulnerable Eurozone. The Trump presidency will result in increased uncertainty that will spread across an already fragile world economy, and it will likely ignite a new wave of turbulence in the short-term… The full report is available here.

“Analytical tools based on Cognitive Intelligence, such as those provided by Expert System, allow us to scale our analysts’ research with massive computational power,” said Francesco De Leo, Chairman, Kaufmann & Partners. “This new approach is creating a revolution in the way we leverage financial intelligence, and it allows the monitoring of low probability events that can disrupt the current dynamics and exert long term impact on multiple asset classes.”